Group sees less than 500 infections by mid-March
THE independent OCTA Research group yesterday projected coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the country would continue to drop despite the shift to the least restrictive Alert Level 1 of the National Capital Region and 38 other areas.
In a televised public briefing, OCTA fellow Guido David said they project that COVID-19 cases will no longer see a resurgence despite the least restrictive alert level being imposed.
“We are projecting that, by tomorrow, we are already at less than 1,000, or at triple digits.
Next week, it will continue to improve daily. We won’t see over 1,000 cases anymore. We are projecting it will continue to decrease, hopefully down to around 500 cases per day sometime around mid-March,” said David.
He said cases could continue to decline, at best, or plateau, at worst.
“There is also a possibility that cases will plateau at around 1,000 cases per day nationally,” he added.
He said the continued decline in cases could be attributed to the high vaccination rates in the areas placed under Alert Level 1.
“We can safely move to Alert Level 1, especially in areas that have high vaccine coverage. It will help prevent spikes and resurgence of cases,” he said.
On the other hand, David said that having the numbers plateau at around 1,000 cases daily won’t be considered as a public health concern because “this is manageable.”
Beginning today, Metro Manila will be under Alert Level 1, where business establishments and public transportation can already resume full operations. Also placed in the least restrictive alert level until March 15 are 38 provinces and cities across the country.
According to David, they support the decision of the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) in shifting the said areas to Alert Level 1 as the government “have to take on some risks too. But, we think, the risks are only minimal.”
Aside from the improving COVID-19 data, he said there are also other pressing matters that require reopening of the country’s restrictions.
“We really need this now. We need to balance public health and the economy. With the growing concern worldwide, especially with the Ukraine-Russia war, we have to keep up with the economic impact. We have to take some risks now and reopen the economy,” said David.
