Cases may hit 500K next month — DOH

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Public warned anew against ignoring health protocols

ACTIVE coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the Philippines could reach up to half a million by the middle of May if Filipinos become more complacent and continue to ignore minimum public health standards (MPHS).

Data from the Department of Health (DOH) shows that as of April 18, there are 19,923 active cases nationwide.

In a virtual press briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said their updated case projections place the numbers at 500,000 from the 300,000 last week.

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“We are informing the public that if we continue not to observe MPHS, our updated projection shows active cases may reach 500,000 in the entire country,” said Vergeire.

“The projection include the assumption that if individuals or communities will have reduced compliance with MPHS of about 30 to 50 percent, this kind of increase in cases will happen,” she said.

Vergeire said they are issuing the statement as they have been observing an increasing complacency among the public.

This, she said, is especially evident in the numerous campaign activities happening nationwide as well as in areas frequented by local and foreign tourists.

“During these past weeks, we have observed that there is growing complacency in terms of avoiding crowds, in terms of physical distancing requirements,” said the health official.

“It began when campaign activities started. There was no more physical distancing. Then, this past Holy Week, we can see there were parties where there is crowding and lack of wearing of face masks,” added Vergeire.

Asked if the projected surge in cases may result to the return of stricter protocols, she said it should no longer reach that point.

“If only we just follow protocols, we don’t need to be restrictive. We should only need to enforce and closely monitor,” said Vergeire.

Last week, the DOH said there is a possibility that cases may rise to as high as 300,000 by middle of next month if compliance with the health protocols continues to decline.

POSITIVE GROWTH RATES

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said Monday night there was a gradual rise in COVID-19 cases in 14 areas under Alert Level 1.

Duque, during the weekly “Talk to the People” briefing with President Duterte, said that based on their monitoring during the April 12 to 18 week, the top three regions with the highest number of recorded cases were the National Capital Region (NCR) with 606 cases, Calabarzon (Region IV-A) with 226 cases, and Central Luzon (Region III) with 181 cases.

The three areas with the highest number of new cases during the same period were Cavite with 101 cases, Manila City with 92 cases and Quezon City with 82 cases.

Duque said the national positivity rate as of April 17 is at 1.6 percent.

He said the number of new cases also went down to 1,571 during the April 12 to 18 period or an average of 224 cases daily from the 1,902 cases from the previous week.

Vergeire said the 14 areas, which are all under Alert Level 1, are in Mimaropa, Central Luzon, Davao Region, Caraga, Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Eastern Visayas.

“We saw positive one-week growth rates, such as from 0 to 2 or from 0 to 3. But it doesn’t mean that increases are significant,” she said.

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Vergeire said the positive one-week growth rates in the 14 areas are “not significant yet as it has not yet affected the bed utilization for COVID-19.”

GRANULAR LOCKDOWN

Despite the reported increase in cases in several areas, Interior Secretary Eduardo Año said there are no more areas under granular lockdown nationwide during the April 10 to April 16 period.

In the same briefing, Año said the local government units in the six areas which were locked down during the previous week have already lifted their mobility restrictions.

Año said authorities on the ground will continue to strictly enforce minimum public health standards to sustain the feat.

“Mr. President, from April 10 to April 16, for the first time, we have not recorded any area under granular lockdown nationwide. Last week, we had six areas under granular lockdown. Now, we have none,” said Año.

“In line with this, we are going to remain aggressive in implementing minimum public health standards,” Año also said, referring to protocols on wearing face mask and observance of physical distancing.

Over the past couple of years, police and local government personnel, in coordination with health officials, have been placing areas with known COVID-19 cases under granular lockdown to prevent the spread of the virus.

ALERT LEVEL 1

National Task Force against COVID-19 chief implementer Carlito Galvez Jr. in the same event, said “almost all areas” in the country are already categorized as “minimal risk with no significant area under granular lockdown” despite the recent loosening of border controls and the presence of super-spreader events such as the Lenten season and Ramadan, and the political events and campaign rallies.

Galvez said three of the 17 regions, namely the NCR, Ilocos and Central Luzon are under Alert Level 1, along with 36 of the 39 major cities in the country.

Only the cities of General Santos, Cotabato and Isabela are not under alert level 1.

Galvez said 39 of the 81 provinces and 393 of the 1,205 municipalities are also under Alert Level 1.

He said many of the places that are still not under Level 1 will graduate to the lower alert level as soon as they meet the full vaccination requirement of 70 percent of their population, and full vaccination of 80 percent of their senior citizens.

BARMM Minister of Interior and Local Government Naguib Sinarimbo, during the Laging Handa public briefing yesterday, said they are concerned about a possible surge of COVID-19 in the region especially with their low vaccination rate of around 34 percent.

Sinarimbo, however, said that while they have a low vaccination rate, they have only recorded 1,760 cases, of which only five are active.

He said they intend to increase their vaccination rate through a more aggressive campaign to remind the people that while there are low COVID cases in their region compared to other areas in the country, getting fully vaccinated and getting booster shots are still important.

He said they intend to vaccinate 215,776 people during the special vaccination days in the provinces of Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur and Marawi City on May 5 to 7; in Basilan and Sulu on May 11 to 13; and Tawi-Tawi from May 16 to 30.

Galvez, on Monday, said of the 3.516 million target population in BARMM, 1.2 million or 34.15 percent have received their first dose; 959,301 or 27.28 percent are fully vaccinated, and 80,254 or 2.28 percent have received booster shots.

VIOLATORS

Año, a key member of the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases, also reported a decrease in the number of individuals accosted nationwide for not wearing face mask and for not observing physical distancing.

He said 28,622 individuals were caught not wearing face mask from April 10 to 16, down by 15.69 percent from the previous week.

Año said 3,002 individuals were accosted for not observing physical distancing during the same period, down by 47.12 percent.

Año said 13 were accosted for violating the protocol on mass gathering, up by 62.5 percent.

“We will continue to enforce minimum public health standards to ensure there will be no transmission of COVID-19,” Año said. — With Jocelyn Montemayor and Victor Reyes

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