With the easing of travel restrictions after 20 months, the Philippine aviation sector is on the road to recovery but is expected to face hurdles as it will take two more years for the industry to return to pre-pandemic operations.
Last week, local airline operators have reopened more routes and increased flight frequencies, after more than 20 domestic destinations have streamlined their travel procedures for vaccinated passengers and the inbound flight cap for international flights also increased in Manila and other key airports.
Carmelo Arcilla, Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) executive director, told Malaya Business Insight in a phone interview the easing of restrictions will slowly improve passenger traffic, but it will take time to attain the pre-pandemic volume which experts estimate will be by 2023.
“I leave it to the experts. They are saying by middle of 2023 the global aviation (will be) in full recovery, same (here) in the Philippines,” he said.
Arcilla is referring to the International Air Transport Association’s projection that global aviation losses may reach nearly $52 billion this year, lower than last year’s $138 billion loss. This is seen to further go down by 2022 to about $12 billion.
In total, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis will cost the aviation $201 billion in losses before the industry returns to profitability in 2023.
Arcilla said streamlined travel procedure will help boost travel demand but noted many factors need to be considered, including economic growth.
“Aviation also follows the economic cycle. The travel industry improves following the upward trend in the economy,” he said.
As the negative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test result for vaccinated passengers is removed in major key domestic destinations, airlines have reopened more flights to address the anticipated higher travel demand.
Philippine Airlines (PAL) has started ramping up its domestic and international flights, now operating 40 percent of its pre-pandemic level with a combination of 120 domestic and international flights per day, an improvement from 27 percent in September this year.
Cebu Pacific (CEB) recently began rehiring the cabin crew it previously laid off in preparation for the travel demand and tourism recovery. CEB retrenched over 1,300 employees last year and ended 2020 with 2,662 versus 4,352 employees in 2019, before the onset of the pandemic.
CEB said its 24 domestic destinations no longer require negative RT-PCR test results for fully vaccinated passengers.
“We are happy with the various LGUs’ (local government units) efforts in safely reopening their borders especially for fully vaccinated individuals. Not only does it simplify the process but also reduces the overall cost of travel. We would encourage a further review and simplification of requirements and for other destinations to follow suit,” said Xander Lao, CEB chief commercial officer.
AirAsia Philippines said all its 11 domestic routes no longer require a COVID-19 test. With this, the airline is set to ramp up domestic flight frequencies and resume its international flights this December.
Meanwhile, the Air Carriers Association of the Philippines (ACAP), composed of PAL, CEB and AirAsia Philippines, has appealed to the government to simplify further the requirements for travelers, and make necessary adjustments in Philippine travel policies to meet the resurging travel demand during the holidays.
Currently, the airline industry is experiencing high demand for flights based on forward bookings and passenger inquiries, ACAP said.
However, passenger sentiments expressed through the various platforms of all ACAP members indicate the challenges they face with varied requirements set by LGUs.
On domestic travel, ACAP is urging LGUs to accept vaccine cards, with or without QR codes.
This will simplify the proof of vaccination requirement regardless of the origin of the vaccine card.
ACAP is also appealing to the government to increase the prevailing cap of 4,000 to 10,000 passengers daily on international arrivals for inbound passengers carried by all international airlines into the country.
ACAP is likewise calling for lesser quarantine days for fully vaccinated passengers from “Yellow List” countries, from the current five days to just two days.
These measures, once implemented, will be a huge boost to a recovering aviation and tourism industry, both of which were badly hit by the pandemic, ACAP said.
In response, Goddes Hope Libiran, Department of Transportation (DOTr) assistant secretary, said in a text message the agency is discussing with the Inter-Agency Task Force on the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases to gradually increase the inbound daily cap on international flights, based on the existing protocols and quarantine capacity.
However, DOTr has yet to recommend the removal of the travel cap imposed since last year.
At present, the international inbound cap in Ninoy Aquino International Airport stood at 4,000, 1,000 in Cebu and 800 in Clark.
CAB data showed that Philippine air passenger traffic volume stood at 2.95 million in January to June, 74 percent down from 11.3 million passengers carried in the same period last year.
The numbers are significantly lower than the 30.5 million passengers recorded during the first half of 2019 or pre-pandemic.
