The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its growth outlook for the Philippines for this year and in 2025.
ADB expects the Philippines to grow by 4.6 percent this year, similar to its outlook earlier in the year.
It, however, revised upwards Asia Pacific’s growth prospects to 5 percent from 4.9 percent previously.
The multilateral lender, in the latest issue of its biannual Asian Development Outlook (ADO), cited the rising regional exports which will complement resilient domestic demand for upgrading Asia and the Pacific’s growth outlook.
The growth outlook for next year is maintained at 4.9 percent for Asia and the Pacific, while the Philippine growth forecast was also kept at 6.2 percent.
“Moderating inflation and expected monetary easing in the second half of 2024 will support household consumption and investment,” the ADB said of the Philippines’ prospects.
Inflation, meanwhile, will slow down to 3.8 percent this year from last year’s 6 percent, still the same forecast as in the earlier ADO report.
For the region, the inflation outlook was revised downward to 2.9 percent from the previous 3.2 percent, amid easing global food prices and the lingering effects of higher interest rates.
“After a post-pandemic recovery that was driven mainly by domestic demand, exports are rebounding and helping propel the region’s economic growth. Strong global demand for electronics, particularly semiconductors used for high-technology and artificial intelligence applications, is boosting exports from several Asian economies,” the ADB said.
“Most of Asia and the Pacific is seeing faster economic growth compared with the second half of last year. The region’s fundamentals remain strong, but policy makers still need to pay attention to a number of risks that could affect the outlook, from uncertainty related to election outcomes in major economies to interest rate decisions and geopolitical tensions,” added Albert Park, ADB chief economist.
The ADB said while inflation is moderating toward pre-pandemic levels in the region as a whole, price pressures remain elevated in some economies.
“Food inflation is still high in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific, in part due to adverse weather and food export restrictions in some economies,” it said.
The growth forecast for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is kept at 4.8 percent this year, attributed to a continued recovery in services consumption, and stronger-than-expected exports and industrial activity are supporting the expansion, even as its struggling property sector has yet to stabilize.
The ADB also retained its 2024 outlook for India, the region’s fastest-growing economy, at 7 percent, saying India’s industrial sector is projected to grow robustly, driven by manufacturing and strong demand in construction.
India’s agriculture is expected to rebound amid forecasts for an above-normal monsoon, while investment demand remains strong, led by public investment, the ADB added.
For Southeast Asia, the growth forecast is maintained at 4.6 percent this year amid solid improvements in both domestic and external demand.
“This year’s outlook for the Caucasus and Central Asia is raised to 4.5 percent from a previous projection of 4.3 percent, driven in part by stronger-than-expected growth in Azerbaijan and the Kyrgyz Republic. In the Pacific, the outlook for 2024 is maintained at 3.3 percent growth, driven by tourism and infrastructure spending, along with revived mining activity in Papua New Guinea,” the ADB said.
