February 26, 2018, 3:15 am
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.0709 UAE Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 2.0666 Albanian Lek
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03436 Neth Antilles Guilder
1 Philippine Peso = 0.38512 Argentine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0246 Australian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03436 Aruba Florin
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03861 Barbados Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.59981 Bangladesh Taka
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0307 Bulgarian Lev
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00727 Bahraini Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 33.8027 Burundi Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01931 Bermuda Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02544 Brunei Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13243 Bolivian Boliviano
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06249 Brazilian Real
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01931 Bahamian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.24035 Bhutan Ngultrum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.18341 Botswana Pula
1 Philippine Peso = 386.48649 Belarus Ruble
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03857 Belize Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02437 Canadian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01807 Swiss Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 11.38996 Chilean Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12225 Chinese Yuan
1 Philippine Peso = 54.88417 Colombian Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 10.92317 Costa Rica Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01931 Cuban Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 1.73147 Cape Verde Escudo
1 Philippine Peso = 0.39788 Czech Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 3.41371 Djibouti Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.11689 Danish Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 0.94363 Dominican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.19764 Algerian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.24563 Estonian Kroon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.34054 Egyptian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.5251 Ethiopian Birr
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0157 Euro
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03853 Fiji Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01381 Falkland Islands Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01382 British Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08607 Ghanaian Cedi
1 Philippine Peso = 0.90347 Gambian Dalasi
1 Philippine Peso = 173.55213 Guinea Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14162 Guatemala Quetzal
1 Philippine Peso = 3.93494 Guyana Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15101 Hong Kong Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.45448 Honduras Lempira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.11653 Croatian Kuna
1 Philippine Peso = 1.23243 Haiti Gourde
1 Philippine Peso = 4.90965 Hungarian Forint
1 Philippine Peso = 263.76448 Indonesian Rupiah
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06723 Israeli Shekel
1 Philippine Peso = 1.25268 Indian Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 22.85714 Iraqi Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 718.33978 Iran Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 1.93822 Iceland Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 2.4222 Jamaican Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01364 Jordanian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 2.0617 Japanese Yen
1 Philippine Peso = 1.96236 Kenyan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 1.311 Kyrgyzstan Som
1 Philippine Peso = 76.94981 Cambodia Riel
1 Philippine Peso = 7.70077 Comoros Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 17.37452 North Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 20.76255 Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00578 Kuwaiti Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01583 Cayman Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.1749 Kazakhstan Tenge
1 Philippine Peso = 159.87839 Lao Kip
1 Philippine Peso = 29.06178 Lebanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 2.99421 Sri Lanka Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 2.50386 Liberian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.22268 Lesotho Loti
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05886 Lithuanian Lita
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01198 Latvian Lat
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0257 Libyan Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.1777 Moroccan Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 0.32037 Moldovan Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.96332 Macedonian Denar
1 Philippine Peso = 25.79151 Myanmar Kyat
1 Philippine Peso = 46.1583 Mongolian Tugrik
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15547 Macau Pataca
1 Philippine Peso = 6.75676 Mauritania Ougulya
1 Philippine Peso = 0.63514 Mauritius Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.29614 Maldives Rufiyaa
1 Philippine Peso = 13.77317 Malawi Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 0.35764 Mexican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07562 Malaysian Ringgit
1 Philippine Peso = 0.22261 Namibian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.9112 Nigerian Naira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.59556 Nicaragua Cordoba
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15133 Norwegian Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 1.99853 Nepalese Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02647 New Zealand Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00743 Omani Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01931 Panama Balboa
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06266 Peruvian Nuevo Sol
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06071 Papua New Guinea Kina
1 Philippine Peso = 1 Philippine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.13127 Pakistani Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06552 Polish Zloty
1 Philippine Peso = 107.39382 Paraguayan Guarani
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07027 Qatar Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07302 Romanian New Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 1.08832 Russian Rouble
1 Philippine Peso = 16.23803 Rwanda Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07239 Saudi Arabian Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14989 Solomon Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25792 Seychelles Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.34575 Sudanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15762 Swedish Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02545 Singapore Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01382 St Helena Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.42869 Slovak Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 147.2973 Sierra Leone Leone
1 Philippine Peso = 10.84942 Somali Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 384.74904 Sao Tome Dobra
1 Philippine Peso = 0.16892 El Salvador Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 9.9417 Syrian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.22262 Swaziland Lilageni
1 Philippine Peso = 0.60579 Thai Baht
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04633 Tunisian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04271 Tongan paʻanga
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07317 Turkish Lira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12974 Trinidad Tobago Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.56444 Taiwan Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 43.35907 Tanzanian Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.52008 Ukraine Hryvnia
1 Philippine Peso = 70.40541 Ugandan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01931 United States Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.54923 Uruguayan New Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 157.72201 Uzbekistan Sum
1 Philippine Peso = 558.39769 Venezuelan Bolivar
1 Philippine Peso = 438.97684 Vietnam Dong
1 Philippine Peso = 2.05502 Vanuatu Vatu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04818 Samoa Tala
1 Philippine Peso = 10.28822 CFA Franc (BEAC)
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05212 East Caribbean Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 10.28822 CFA Franc (BCEAO)
1 Philippine Peso = 1.87297 Pacific Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 4.82336 Yemen Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.22278 South African Rand
1 Philippine Peso = 100.1834 Zambian Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 6.98649 Zimbabwe dollar

The Fed and the falling peso

The United States Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the equivalent of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ( BSP) Monetary Board where it is the primary regulatory authority for American banks and financial institutions. As both a bank regulator and the foremost economic policy making body in a free market economy it has perhaps the most influence in crafting US macroeconomic policies. 

The Fed meets regularly. In those meetings one of the most anticipated topics that the American public and the world at large anxiously await is the matter of interest rates. These are so termed policy rates because they not only have systemic impacts on the rates charged on debt as well as those paid on deposit liabilities but also because these are critical determinants of an economy’s currency.

While the value of a currency results from a number of other factors, one of the most important is the interest rates determined during those meetings.  There indeed are other determinants however. One is the volume of trade between the American economy and a trading partner such as the Philippines, including the balance of payments that result from that relationship, the debts incurred in the trade and others, each coming together to create values based on the bilateral exchange.

Another determinant is money supply, whether in cash or other forms, and whether these are kept inside bank vaults, in circulation, a combination of both or inclusive of other variants like checks, drafts, even novel forms that substitute as media of exchange.

And then there is the value of money based on that crusted law of economics every college sophomore knows by heart -- the law of supply and demand. Money after all is a commodity just like pork bellies and beans. It is tradable. It can be hoarded. And there are circumstances under which it is demanded more than at any other time.

Note how the law of supply and demand influences the value of the peso during an election year when money supply increases should the mint print out more and the resulting supply circulates to fund campaign materials, posters, even vote buying. Election periods witness a rise in inflation where the peso falls as its supply increases.

Most of these determinants are locally confined. This is not the case with the US dollar, the decisions of the Fed and the impact of both on our side of the Pacific.

Recently the Fed had met amid the highest spike in the American manufacturing index in the last 13 years. Never mind that most of those 13 years saw downshifted outputs, ironically during wars aggressively fought despite increasingly aging and depleted military hardware. Not only had the war machine practically jammed under the Obama administration but both jobs and remnant manufacturing migrated outside the Union. 

In contrast, in the few months since the Trump presidency took office inbound foreign direct investments (FDI) increased, manufacturing churned back on and domestic employment ramped up exponentially.

The foregoing helps us to understand what economic conditions underlie and preempt interest rate deliberations that found the dollar’s value.

In considering rate policies the Fed looks at several economic indices that indicate domestic capacities to absorb increased rates. Among the bellwether indices are productivity, employment and the manufacturing index. 

FDI flowing to the United States in the second quarter of 2017 under the Trump presidency had increased by as much as US$ 46,200 million -- double  the average FDI increase of US$ 23,860 million from 1994 to 2017.

For productivity, surpassing expectations, the US gross domestic productivity (GDP), expanded on an annualized basis by 3.1 percent
 its strongest since 2015.

As of the middle of the year the US unemployment rate had fallen to 4.1 percent the lowest in 10 to 16 sixteen years. Not only are jobs catalysts for the strengthening of the dollar but these reflect the financial resilience of the American worker in coping with increased debt costs following rate hikes.

Finally, as previously mentioned, the US manufacturing index  hit a 13-year high at 60.8. When these set of economic indices chorus, the music produced is a song of praise as investments flow in or return home as Americans troop back to work, and their jobs, specifically in the manufacturing sector, produce unprecedented growth.

These conditions compel the Fed to raise rates before the year ends regardless of further adjustments. A rate hike is a virtual certainty this December pushing the peso lower somewhere around $1: P52. Elliot Wave forecasters see it weakening further in the medium term.

These do not augur well for the Filipino public, courtesy of a rubber-stamp congress, likely to be hit hard by higher excise and value-added taxes in 2018 as a stronger dollar weakens an already fallen peso and aggregate prices rise, while investment capital flies to the US where higher interest rates yield higher returns.
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