June 22, 2018, 7:11 am
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.06897 UAE Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 2.04526 Albanian Lek
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03404 Neth Antilles Guilder
1 Philippine Peso = 0.52113 Argentine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02544 Australian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03343 Aruba Florin
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03756 Barbados Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.57728 Bangladesh Taka
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03184 Bulgarian Lev
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00709 Bahraini Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 32.88225 Burundi Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01878 Bermuda Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02522 Brunei Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12883 Bolivian Boliviano
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07009 Brazilian Real
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01878 Bahamian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.277 Bhutan Ngultrum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.19573 Botswana Pula
1 Philippine Peso = 375.96244 Belarus Ruble
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03752 Belize Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02494 Canadian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01868 Swiss Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 12.01146 Chilean Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12169 Chinese Yuan
1 Philippine Peso = 54.86948 Colombian Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 10.59718 Costa Rica Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01878 Cuban Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 1.78854 Cape Verde Escudo
1 Philippine Peso = 0.41869 Czech Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 3.33333 Djibouti Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12088 Danish Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 0.93052 Dominican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.20053 Algerian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25367 Estonian Kroon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.33502 Egyptian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.51117 Ethiopian Birr
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01621 Euro
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03897 Fiji Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01426 Falkland Islands Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01425 British Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08833 Ghanaian Cedi
1 Philippine Peso = 0.87962 Gambian Dalasi
1 Philippine Peso = 169.05164 Guinea Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14052 Guatemala Quetzal
1 Philippine Peso = 3.88526 Guyana Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14739 Hong Kong Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.44866 Honduras Lempira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.1197 Croatian Kuna
1 Philippine Peso = 1.23812 Haiti Gourde
1 Philippine Peso = 5.22103 Hungarian Forint
1 Philippine Peso = 261.46479 Indonesian Rupiah
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06819 Israeli Shekel
1 Philippine Peso = 1.27817 Indian Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 22.23474 Iraqi Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 796.99531 Iran Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 2.05333 Iceland Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 2.4507 Jamaican Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01331 Jordanian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 2.06607 Japanese Yen
1 Philippine Peso = 1.89577 Kenyan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 1.28255 Kyrgyzstan Som
1 Philippine Peso = 75.84601 Cambodia Riel
1 Philippine Peso = 7.92488 Comoros Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 16.90141 North Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 20.8492 Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00568 Kuwaiti Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0154 Cayman Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.40488 Kazakhstan Tenge
1 Philippine Peso = 157.33333 Lao Kip
1 Philippine Peso = 28.26291 Lebanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 3.00282 Sri Lanka Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 2.66254 Liberian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.2584 Lesotho Loti
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05725 Lithuanian Lita
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01165 Latvian Lat
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02546 Libyan Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.17921 Moroccan Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 0.31576 Moldovan Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.99324 Macedonian Denar
1 Philippine Peso = 25.69014 Myanmar Kyat
1 Philippine Peso = 45.33333 Mongolian Tugrik
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15181 Macau Pataca
1 Philippine Peso = 6.66667 Mauritania Ougulya
1 Philippine Peso = 0.65765 Mauritius Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.29239 Maldives Rufiyaa
1 Philippine Peso = 13.39812 Malawi Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 0.3853 Mexican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07515 Malaysian Ringgit
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25797 Namibian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.74178 Nigerian Naira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.59151 Nicaragua Cordoba
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15379 Norwegian Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 2.0385 Nepalese Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0272 New Zealand Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00723 Omani Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01878 Panama Balboa
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06164 Peruvian Nuevo Sol
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06142 Papua New Guinea Kina
1 Philippine Peso = 1 Philippine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.28545 Pakistani Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06993 Polish Zloty
1 Philippine Peso = 106.70047 Paraguayan Guarani
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06835 Qatar Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07565 Romanian New Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 1.1966 Russian Rouble
1 Philippine Peso = 15.95174 Rwanda Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07042 Saudi Arabian Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14841 Solomon Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25277 Seychelles Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.33719 Sudanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.16718 Swedish Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02548 Singapore Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01426 St Helena Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.41701 Slovak Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 149.29577 Sierra Leone Leone
1 Philippine Peso = 10.57277 Somali Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 397.4216 Sao Tome Dobra
1 Philippine Peso = 0.16432 El Salvador Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 9.67099 Syrian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25817 Swaziland Lilageni
1 Philippine Peso = 0.61446 Thai Baht
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04845 Tunisian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04326 Tongan paʻanga
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08905 Turkish Lira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12487 Trinidad Tobago Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.56648 Taiwan Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 42.59155 Tanzanian Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.49596 Ukraine Hryvnia
1 Philippine Peso = 72.33803 Ugandan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01878 United States Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.59211 Uruguayan New Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 147.69953 Uzbekistan Sum
1 Philippine Peso = 1498.59155 Venezuelan Bolivar
1 Philippine Peso = 429.12676 Vietnam Dong
1 Philippine Peso = 2.02911 Vanuatu Vatu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04869 Samoa Tala
1 Philippine Peso = 10.62592 CFA Franc (BEAC)
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0507 East Caribbean Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 10.62592 CFA Franc (BCEAO)
1 Philippine Peso = 1.92432 Pacific Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 4.69202 Yemen Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25823 South African Rand
1 Philippine Peso = 97.4554 Zambian Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 6.79624 Zimbabwe dollar

The Fed and the falling peso

The United States Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the equivalent of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ( BSP) Monetary Board where it is the primary regulatory authority for American banks and financial institutions. As both a bank regulator and the foremost economic policy making body in a free market economy it has perhaps the most influence in crafting US macroeconomic policies. 

The Fed meets regularly. In those meetings one of the most anticipated topics that the American public and the world at large anxiously await is the matter of interest rates. These are so termed policy rates because they not only have systemic impacts on the rates charged on debt as well as those paid on deposit liabilities but also because these are critical determinants of an economy’s currency.

While the value of a currency results from a number of other factors, one of the most important is the interest rates determined during those meetings.  There indeed are other determinants however. One is the volume of trade between the American economy and a trading partner such as the Philippines, including the balance of payments that result from that relationship, the debts incurred in the trade and others, each coming together to create values based on the bilateral exchange.

Another determinant is money supply, whether in cash or other forms, and whether these are kept inside bank vaults, in circulation, a combination of both or inclusive of other variants like checks, drafts, even novel forms that substitute as media of exchange.

And then there is the value of money based on that crusted law of economics every college sophomore knows by heart -- the law of supply and demand. Money after all is a commodity just like pork bellies and beans. It is tradable. It can be hoarded. And there are circumstances under which it is demanded more than at any other time.

Note how the law of supply and demand influences the value of the peso during an election year when money supply increases should the mint print out more and the resulting supply circulates to fund campaign materials, posters, even vote buying. Election periods witness a rise in inflation where the peso falls as its supply increases.

Most of these determinants are locally confined. This is not the case with the US dollar, the decisions of the Fed and the impact of both on our side of the Pacific.

Recently the Fed had met amid the highest spike in the American manufacturing index in the last 13 years. Never mind that most of those 13 years saw downshifted outputs, ironically during wars aggressively fought despite increasingly aging and depleted military hardware. Not only had the war machine practically jammed under the Obama administration but both jobs and remnant manufacturing migrated outside the Union. 

In contrast, in the few months since the Trump presidency took office inbound foreign direct investments (FDI) increased, manufacturing churned back on and domestic employment ramped up exponentially.

The foregoing helps us to understand what economic conditions underlie and preempt interest rate deliberations that found the dollar’s value.

In considering rate policies the Fed looks at several economic indices that indicate domestic capacities to absorb increased rates. Among the bellwether indices are productivity, employment and the manufacturing index. 

FDI flowing to the United States in the second quarter of 2017 under the Trump presidency had increased by as much as US$ 46,200 million -- double  the average FDI increase of US$ 23,860 million from 1994 to 2017.

For productivity, surpassing expectations, the US gross domestic productivity (GDP), expanded on an annualized basis by 3.1 percent
 its strongest since 2015.

As of the middle of the year the US unemployment rate had fallen to 4.1 percent the lowest in 10 to 16 sixteen years. Not only are jobs catalysts for the strengthening of the dollar but these reflect the financial resilience of the American worker in coping with increased debt costs following rate hikes.

Finally, as previously mentioned, the US manufacturing index  hit a 13-year high at 60.8. When these set of economic indices chorus, the music produced is a song of praise as investments flow in or return home as Americans troop back to work, and their jobs, specifically in the manufacturing sector, produce unprecedented growth.

These conditions compel the Fed to raise rates before the year ends regardless of further adjustments. A rate hike is a virtual certainty this December pushing the peso lower somewhere around $1: P52. Elliot Wave forecasters see it weakening further in the medium term.

These do not augur well for the Filipino public, courtesy of a rubber-stamp congress, likely to be hit hard by higher excise and value-added taxes in 2018 as a stronger dollar weakens an already fallen peso and aggregate prices rise, while investment capital flies to the US where higher interest rates yield higher returns.
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