October 19, 2017, 7:07 pm
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.0717 UAE Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 2.20871 Albanian Lek
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03475 Neth Antilles Guilder
1 Philippine Peso = 0.33813 Argentine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0248 Australian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03475 Aruba Florin
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03905 Barbados Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.57731 Bangladesh Taka
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03233 Bulgarian Lev
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00736 Bahraini Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 33.79539 Burundi Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01952 Bermuda Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02637 Brunei Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13393 Bolivian Boliviano
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0616 Brazilian Real
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01952 Bahamian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.2666 Bhutan Ngultrum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.19953 Botswana Pula
1 Philippine Peso = 390.86294 Belarus Ruble
1 Philippine Peso = 0.039 Belize Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02447 Canadian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01905 Swiss Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 12.09684 Chilean Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12863 Chinese Yuan
1 Philippine Peso = 57.20812 Colombian Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 11.07243 Costa Rica Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01952 Cuban Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 1.82351 Cape Verde Escudo
1 Philippine Peso = 0.42558 Czech Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 3.46544 Djibouti Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12309 Danish Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 0.92112 Dominican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.21712 Algerian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25865 Estonian Kroon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.3441 Egyptian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.52519 Ethiopian Birr
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01653 Euro
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0399 Fiji Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01467 Falkland Islands Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01471 British Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08578 Ghanaian Cedi
1 Philippine Peso = 0.91761 Gambian Dalasi
1 Philippine Peso = 173.50644 Guinea Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14337 Guatemala Quetzal
1 Philippine Peso = 3.9752 Guyana Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15244 Hong Kong Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.45638 Honduras Lempira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12402 Croatian Kuna
1 Philippine Peso = 1.19621 Haiti Gourde
1 Philippine Peso = 5.08551 Hungarian Forint
1 Philippine Peso = 263.17844 Indonesian Rupiah
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0682 Israeli Shekel
1 Philippine Peso = 1.26328 Indian Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 22.78407 Iraqi Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 667.88363 Iran Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 2.04705 Iceland Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 2.48653 Jamaican Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01381 Jordanian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 2.1829 Japanese Yen
1 Philippine Peso = 2.01386 Kenyan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 1.33715 Kyrgyzstan Som
1 Philippine Peso = 78.73877 Cambodia Riel
1 Philippine Peso = 8.09352 Comoros Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 17.57126 North Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 21.9875 Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00589 Kuwaiti Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01601 Cayman Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.51054 Kazakhstan Tenge
1 Philippine Peso = 161.47403 Lao Kip
1 Philippine Peso = 29.39672 Lebanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 2.99785 Sri Lanka Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 2.29988 Liberian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25908 Lesotho Loti
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05952 Lithuanian Lita
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01212 Latvian Lat
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02662 Libyan Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.18372 Moroccan Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 0.33809 Moldovan Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 1.01269 Macedonian Denar
1 Philippine Peso = 26.59117 Myanmar Kyat
1 Philippine Peso = 47.89145 Mongolian Tugrik
1 Philippine Peso = 0.157 Macau Pataca
1 Philippine Peso = 7.04803 Mauritania Ougulya
1 Philippine Peso = 0.65892 Mauritius Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.3034 Maldives Rufiyaa
1 Philippine Peso = 13.98223 Malawi Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 0.37125 Mexican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0823 Malaysian Ringgit
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25884 Namibian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.89184 Nigerian Naira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.59176 Nicaragua Cordoba
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15391 Norwegian Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 2.0285 Nepalese Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02714 New Zealand Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00751 Omani Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01952 Panama Balboa
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06338 Peruvian Nuevo Sol
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06228 Papua New Guinea Kina
1 Philippine Peso = 1 Philippine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.05076 Pakistani Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07005 Polish Zloty
1 Philippine Peso = 109.88871 Paraguayan Guarani
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07106 Qatar Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07576 Romanian New Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 1.11582 Russian Rouble
1 Philippine Peso = 16.21398 Rwanda Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07321 Saudi Arabian Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15248 Solomon Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26667 Seychelles Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13003 Sudanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15841 Swedish Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02638 Singapore Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01468 St Helena Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.43354 Slovak Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 148.77001 Sierra Leone Leone
1 Philippine Peso = 10.91371 Somali Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 405.15812 Sao Tome Dobra
1 Philippine Peso = 0.17083 El Salvador Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 10.05428 Syrian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25884 Swaziland Lilageni
1 Philippine Peso = 0.64526 Thai Baht
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04826 Tunisian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04364 Tongan paʻanga
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07093 Turkish Lira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13039 Trinidad Tobago Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.58821 Taiwan Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 43.69387 Tanzanian Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.51738 Ukraine Hryvnia
1 Philippine Peso = 71.10504 Ugandan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01952 United States Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.57321 Uruguayan New Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 156.77469 Uzbekistan Sum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.19475 Venezuelan Bolivar
1 Philippine Peso = 443.49862 Vietnam Dong
1 Philippine Peso = 2.03026 Vanuatu Vatu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0495 Samoa Tala
1 Philippine Peso = 10.83639 CFA Franc (BEAC)
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05271 East Caribbean Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 10.75752 CFA Franc (BCEAO)
1 Philippine Peso = 1.96193 Pacific Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 4.87895 Yemen Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.259 South African Rand
1 Philippine Peso = 101.31784 Zambian Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 7.0656 Zimbabwe dollar

The Fed and the falling peso

The United States Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the equivalent of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ( BSP) Monetary Board where it is the primary regulatory authority for American banks and financial institutions. As both a bank regulator and the foremost economic policy making body in a free market economy it has perhaps the most influence in crafting US macroeconomic policies. 

The Fed meets regularly. In those meetings one of the most anticipated topics that the American public and the world at large anxiously await is the matter of interest rates. These are so termed policy rates because they not only have systemic impacts on the rates charged on debt as well as those paid on deposit liabilities but also because these are critical determinants of an economy’s currency.

While the value of a currency results from a number of other factors, one of the most important is the interest rates determined during those meetings.  There indeed are other determinants however. One is the volume of trade between the American economy and a trading partner such as the Philippines, including the balance of payments that result from that relationship, the debts incurred in the trade and others, each coming together to create values based on the bilateral exchange.

Another determinant is money supply, whether in cash or other forms, and whether these are kept inside bank vaults, in circulation, a combination of both or inclusive of other variants like checks, drafts, even novel forms that substitute as media of exchange.

And then there is the value of money based on that crusted law of economics every college sophomore knows by heart -- the law of supply and demand. Money after all is a commodity just like pork bellies and beans. It is tradable. It can be hoarded. And there are circumstances under which it is demanded more than at any other time.

Note how the law of supply and demand influences the value of the peso during an election year when money supply increases should the mint print out more and the resulting supply circulates to fund campaign materials, posters, even vote buying. Election periods witness a rise in inflation where the peso falls as its supply increases.

Most of these determinants are locally confined. This is not the case with the US dollar, the decisions of the Fed and the impact of both on our side of the Pacific.

Recently the Fed had met amid the highest spike in the American manufacturing index in the last 13 years. Never mind that most of those 13 years saw downshifted outputs, ironically during wars aggressively fought despite increasingly aging and depleted military hardware. Not only had the war machine practically jammed under the Obama administration but both jobs and remnant manufacturing migrated outside the Union. 

In contrast, in the few months since the Trump presidency took office inbound foreign direct investments (FDI) increased, manufacturing churned back on and domestic employment ramped up exponentially.

The foregoing helps us to understand what economic conditions underlie and preempt interest rate deliberations that found the dollar’s value.

In considering rate policies the Fed looks at several economic indices that indicate domestic capacities to absorb increased rates. Among the bellwether indices are productivity, employment and the manufacturing index. 

FDI flowing to the United States in the second quarter of 2017 under the Trump presidency had increased by as much as US$ 46,200 million -- double  the average FDI increase of US$ 23,860 million from 1994 to 2017.

For productivity, surpassing expectations, the US gross domestic productivity (GDP), expanded on an annualized basis by 3.1 percent
 its strongest since 2015.

As of the middle of the year the US unemployment rate had fallen to 4.1 percent the lowest in 10 to 16 sixteen years. Not only are jobs catalysts for the strengthening of the dollar but these reflect the financial resilience of the American worker in coping with increased debt costs following rate hikes.

Finally, as previously mentioned, the US manufacturing index  hit a 13-year high at 60.8. When these set of economic indices chorus, the music produced is a song of praise as investments flow in or return home as Americans troop back to work, and their jobs, specifically in the manufacturing sector, produce unprecedented growth.

These conditions compel the Fed to raise rates before the year ends regardless of further adjustments. A rate hike is a virtual certainty this December pushing the peso lower somewhere around $1: P52. Elliot Wave forecasters see it weakening further in the medium term.

These do not augur well for the Filipino public, courtesy of a rubber-stamp congress, likely to be hit hard by higher excise and value-added taxes in 2018 as a stronger dollar weakens an already fallen peso and aggregate prices rise, while investment capital flies to the US where higher interest rates yield higher returns.
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