December 16, 2017, 9:36 am
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.07288 UAE Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 2.24593 Albanian Lek
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03533 Neth Antilles Guilder
1 Philippine Peso = 0.34712 Argentine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02593 Australian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03533 Aruba Florin
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0397 Barbados Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.63815 Bangladesh Taka
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03288 Bulgarian Lev
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00748 Bahraini Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 34.75546 Burundi Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01985 Bermuda Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02675 Brunei Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13617 Bolivian Boliviano
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06539 Brazilian Real
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01985 Bahamian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.2763 Bhutan Ngultrum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.20411 Botswana Pula
1 Philippine Peso = 397.3799 Belarus Ruble
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03965 Belize Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02552 Canadian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01965 Swiss Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 12.62406 Chilean Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13118 Chinese Yuan
1 Philippine Peso = 59.40849 Colombian Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 11.184 Costa Rica Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01985 Cuban Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 1.86245 Cape Verde Escudo
1 Philippine Peso = 0.43364 Czech Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 3.50992 Djibouti Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12575 Danish Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 0.94204 Dominican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.28011 Algerian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26427 Estonian Kroon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.35252 Egyptian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.5391 Ethiopian Birr
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01689 Euro
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04119 Fiji Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01488 Falkland Islands Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0149 British Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08949 Ghanaian Cedi
1 Philippine Peso = 0.93628 Gambian Dalasi
1 Philippine Peso = 177.61016 Guinea Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14561 Guatemala Quetzal
1 Philippine Peso = 4.01171 Guyana Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15502 Hong Kong Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.46602 Honduras Lempira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12717 Croatian Kuna
1 Philippine Peso = 1.24851 Haiti Gourde
1 Philippine Peso = 5.30468 Hungarian Forint
1 Philippine Peso = 269.45216 Indonesian Rupiah
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0697 Israeli Shekel
1 Philippine Peso = 1.27173 Indian Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 23.50139 Iraqi Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 706.60975 Iran Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 2.09111 Iceland Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 2.47122 Jamaican Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01404 Jordanian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 2.23456 Japanese Yen
1 Philippine Peso = 2.04347 Kenyan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 1.38392 Kyrgyzstan Som
1 Philippine Peso = 79.89281 Cambodia Riel
1 Philippine Peso = 8.1582 Comoros Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 17.86423 North Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 21.58495 Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00599 Kuwaiti Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01628 Cayman Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.65919 Kazakhstan Tenge
1 Philippine Peso = 164.78761 Lao Kip
1 Philippine Peso = 29.88289 Lebanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 3.0389 Sri Lanka Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 2.48432 Liberian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26141 Lesotho Loti
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06051 Lithuanian Lita
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01232 Latvian Lat
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02704 Libyan Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.1878 Moroccan Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 0.33869 Moldovan Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 1.03414 Macedonian Denar
1 Philippine Peso = 27.03454 Myanmar Kyat
1 Philippine Peso = 48.15403 Mongolian Tugrik
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15967 Macau Pataca
1 Philippine Peso = 6.9869 Mauritania Ougulya
1 Philippine Peso = 0.67209 Mauritius Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.30905 Maldives Rufiyaa
1 Philippine Peso = 14.16276 Malawi Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 0.37963 Mexican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08094 Malaysian Ringgit
1 Philippine Peso = 0.2608 Namibian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 7.10599 Nigerian Naira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.60838 Nicaragua Cordoba
1 Philippine Peso = 0.16635 Norwegian Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 2.03573 Nepalese Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02839 New Zealand Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00762 Omani Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01985 Panama Balboa
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06535 Peruvian Nuevo Sol
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06434 Papua New Guinea Kina
1 Philippine Peso = 1 Philippine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.17745 Pakistani Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07099 Polish Zloty
1 Philippine Peso = 111.57205 Paraguayan Guarani
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07225 Qatar Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07797 Romanian New Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 1.1679 Russian Rouble
1 Philippine Peso = 16.58892 Rwanda Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07443 Saudi Arabian Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15358 Solomon Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26852 Seychelles Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13219 Sudanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.16899 Swedish Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02675 Singapore Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01489 St Helena Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.44077 Slovak Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 151.44898 Sierra Leone Leone
1 Philippine Peso = 11.09567 Somali Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 413.80507 Sao Tome Dobra
1 Philippine Peso = 0.17368 El Salvador Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 10.22191 Syrian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26054 Swaziland Lilageni
1 Philippine Peso = 0.6449 Thai Baht
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04961 Tunisian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04557 Tongan paʻanga
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07666 Turkish Lira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13159 Trinidad Tobago Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.5944 Taiwan Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 44.30329 Tanzanian Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.54875 Ukraine Hryvnia
1 Philippine Peso = 71.55617 Ugandan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01985 United States Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.57046 Uruguayan New Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 160.57959 Uzbekistan Sum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.198 Venezuelan Bolivar
1 Philippine Peso = 450.55577 Vietnam Dong
1 Philippine Peso = 2.09845 Vanuatu Vatu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05144 Samoa Tala
1 Philippine Peso = 11.07165 CFA Franc (BEAC)
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05359 East Caribbean Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 11.49782 CFA Franc (BCEAO)
1 Philippine Peso = 2.00337 Pacific Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 4.96129 Yemen Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26079 South African Rand
1 Philippine Peso = 103.00714 Zambian Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 7.18341 Zimbabwe dollar

The Fed and the falling peso

The United States Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the equivalent of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ( BSP) Monetary Board where it is the primary regulatory authority for American banks and financial institutions. As both a bank regulator and the foremost economic policy making body in a free market economy it has perhaps the most influence in crafting US macroeconomic policies. 

The Fed meets regularly. In those meetings one of the most anticipated topics that the American public and the world at large anxiously await is the matter of interest rates. These are so termed policy rates because they not only have systemic impacts on the rates charged on debt as well as those paid on deposit liabilities but also because these are critical determinants of an economy’s currency.

While the value of a currency results from a number of other factors, one of the most important is the interest rates determined during those meetings.  There indeed are other determinants however. One is the volume of trade between the American economy and a trading partner such as the Philippines, including the balance of payments that result from that relationship, the debts incurred in the trade and others, each coming together to create values based on the bilateral exchange.

Another determinant is money supply, whether in cash or other forms, and whether these are kept inside bank vaults, in circulation, a combination of both or inclusive of other variants like checks, drafts, even novel forms that substitute as media of exchange.

And then there is the value of money based on that crusted law of economics every college sophomore knows by heart -- the law of supply and demand. Money after all is a commodity just like pork bellies and beans. It is tradable. It can be hoarded. And there are circumstances under which it is demanded more than at any other time.

Note how the law of supply and demand influences the value of the peso during an election year when money supply increases should the mint print out more and the resulting supply circulates to fund campaign materials, posters, even vote buying. Election periods witness a rise in inflation where the peso falls as its supply increases.

Most of these determinants are locally confined. This is not the case with the US dollar, the decisions of the Fed and the impact of both on our side of the Pacific.

Recently the Fed had met amid the highest spike in the American manufacturing index in the last 13 years. Never mind that most of those 13 years saw downshifted outputs, ironically during wars aggressively fought despite increasingly aging and depleted military hardware. Not only had the war machine practically jammed under the Obama administration but both jobs and remnant manufacturing migrated outside the Union. 

In contrast, in the few months since the Trump presidency took office inbound foreign direct investments (FDI) increased, manufacturing churned back on and domestic employment ramped up exponentially.

The foregoing helps us to understand what economic conditions underlie and preempt interest rate deliberations that found the dollar’s value.

In considering rate policies the Fed looks at several economic indices that indicate domestic capacities to absorb increased rates. Among the bellwether indices are productivity, employment and the manufacturing index. 

FDI flowing to the United States in the second quarter of 2017 under the Trump presidency had increased by as much as US$ 46,200 million -- double  the average FDI increase of US$ 23,860 million from 1994 to 2017.

For productivity, surpassing expectations, the US gross domestic productivity (GDP), expanded on an annualized basis by 3.1 percent
 its strongest since 2015.

As of the middle of the year the US unemployment rate had fallen to 4.1 percent the lowest in 10 to 16 sixteen years. Not only are jobs catalysts for the strengthening of the dollar but these reflect the financial resilience of the American worker in coping with increased debt costs following rate hikes.

Finally, as previously mentioned, the US manufacturing index  hit a 13-year high at 60.8. When these set of economic indices chorus, the music produced is a song of praise as investments flow in or return home as Americans troop back to work, and their jobs, specifically in the manufacturing sector, produce unprecedented growth.

These conditions compel the Fed to raise rates before the year ends regardless of further adjustments. A rate hike is a virtual certainty this December pushing the peso lower somewhere around $1: P52. Elliot Wave forecasters see it weakening further in the medium term.

These do not augur well for the Filipino public, courtesy of a rubber-stamp congress, likely to be hit hard by higher excise and value-added taxes in 2018 as a stronger dollar weakens an already fallen peso and aggregate prices rise, while investment capital flies to the US where higher interest rates yield higher returns.
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