(Highlights of the Asean Centre for Energy (ACE) and the IEEJ 2nd Asean Energy Outlook, 2009 on energy and CO2 emission outlook in the next two and a half decades)
• Final energy consumption in ASEAN will grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent from 343 MTOE 2005 to 901 MTOE 2030 in the Reference scenario with the transportation sector experiencing the highest growth in consumption of 5.1 percent per annum. The industry sector consumption will grow at an annual rate of 4.6 percent while the consumption of the combined residential, commercial and agriculture sectors will have a slower growth of 2.4 percent per annum. Electricity will have the highest growth rate among the energy consumed in the final consumption sector at 6.1 percent per annum. This is followed by coal at 5.9 percent, natural gas at 5.0 percent and oil at 4.5 percent.
Biomass will have a slow growth rate of 0.2 percent per annum.
• The corresponding primary energy consumption will have a faster growth rate of 4.0 percent per annum with coal having the fastest annual growth rate of 6.9 percent. This is due to the projected rapid growth in electricity consumption that will be met largely by coal-fired generation. Hydropower will have the second fastest growth rate of 5.4 percent as countries in the Great Mekong Sub-region decide to develop their vast hydropower potential. Oil and natural gas will have the next fastest growth rates of 4.0 percent per annum. Oil will remain as the major source of energy in the region even increasing its share to the total primary energy supply from 40.9 percent in 2005 to 41.5 percent in 2030. Nuclear energy will be introduced in the region before 2020 and will have a 0.9 percent share of the total by 2020 which will increase to 1.6 percent in 2030. Geothermal energy will be further developed in the Philippines and Indonesia which will result to 3.9 percent annual growth rate in the primary energy supply. Biomass will continue to grow albeit at a slow pace of 0.2 percent per annum. The growth in energy consumption will increase per capita energy consumption from 0.9 TOE per person in 2005 to 1.8 TOE per person in 2030.
However, energy consumption per unit of GDP will decrease from 627 TOE/million US dollars1 (USD) in 2005 to 500 TOE/million USD in 2030, a reduction of 20.3 percent over a 25-year period.
• The above growth in primary energy consumption will result to a corresponding 5.1 percent annual growth in CO2 emission. This is due to the faster growth rate in the consumption of carbon-based energy sources than in the growth of carbon-free sources such as nuclear and renewable energy. As a result, CO2 emission per unit of energy consumption will increase from 0.52 tons of carbon equivalent (ktC)/TOE in 2005 to 0.68 kt-C/TOE in 2030. CO2 emission per unit of GDP will also increase at average annual rate of 0.2 percent from 325 kt-C/million USD in 2005 to 339 kt-C/million USD in 2030.