October 24, 2017, 1:29 am
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.07134 UAE Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 2.20455 Albanian Lek
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03458 Neth Antilles Guilder
1 Philippine Peso = 0.33662 Argentine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02487 Australian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03458 Aruba Florin
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03885 Barbados Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.60625 Bangladesh Taka
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03236 Bulgarian Lev
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00733 Bahraini Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 33.77953 Burundi Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01943 Bermuda Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02645 Brunei Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13326 Bolivian Boliviano
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06247 Brazilian Real
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01943 Bahamian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.26263 Bhutan Ngultrum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.2012 Botswana Pula
1 Philippine Peso = 388.88889 Belarus Ruble
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03881 Belize Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02456 Canadian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01915 Swiss Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 12.27409 Chilean Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12894 Chinese Yuan
1 Philippine Peso = 57.24748 Colombian Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 10.99748 Costa Rica Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01943 Cuban Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 1.82304 Cape Verde Escudo
1 Philippine Peso = 0.42383 Czech Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 3.43493 Djibouti Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12305 Danish Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 0.91725 Dominican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.22277 Algerian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25859 Estonian Kroon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.34188 Egyptian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.52409 Ethiopian Birr
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01653 Euro
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03972 Fiji Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01475 Falkland Islands Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01472 British Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08496 Ghanaian Cedi
1 Philippine Peso = 0.91414 Gambian Dalasi
1 Philippine Peso = 174.78632 Guinea Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14265 Guatemala Quetzal
1 Philippine Peso = 3.93765 Guyana Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15157 Hong Kong Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.45491 Honduras Lempira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12399 Croatian Kuna
1 Philippine Peso = 1.18939 Haiti Gourde
1 Philippine Peso = 5.08741 Hungarian Forint
1 Philippine Peso = 263.01476 Indonesian Rupiah
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06781 Israeli Shekel
1 Philippine Peso = 1.26296 Indian Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 22.669 Iraqi Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 667.07459 Iran Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 2.04662 Iceland Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 2.45552 Jamaican Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01374 Jordanian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 2.20812 Japanese Yen
1 Philippine Peso = 2.00952 Kenyan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 1.32896 Kyrgyzstan Som
1 Philippine Peso = 78.1857 Cambodia Riel
1 Philippine Peso = 8.06566 Comoros Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 17.48252 North Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 21.95047 Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00587 Kuwaiti Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01593 Cayman Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.52234 Kazakhstan Tenge
1 Philippine Peso = 161.26651 Lao Kip
1 Philippine Peso = 29.24437 Lebanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 2.98368 Sri Lanka Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 2.29817 Liberian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.267 Lesotho Loti
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05922 Lithuanian Lita
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01205 Latvian Lat
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02654 Libyan Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.18329 Moroccan Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 0.33557 Moldovan Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 1.00952 Macedonian Denar
1 Philippine Peso = 26.41803 Myanmar Kyat
1 Philippine Peso = 47.5136 Mongolian Tugrik
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15611 Macau Pataca
1 Philippine Peso = 6.8244 Mauritania Ougulya
1 Philippine Peso = 0.65657 Mauritius Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.30245 Maldives Rufiyaa
1 Philippine Peso = 13.91123 Malawi Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 0.37068 Mexican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08228 Malaysian Ringgit
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26663 Namibian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.91531 Nigerian Naira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.59261 Nicaragua Cordoba
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15522 Norwegian Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 2.01146 Nepalese Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02786 New Zealand Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00746 Omani Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01943 Panama Balboa
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06287 Peruvian Nuevo Sol
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06211 Papua New Guinea Kina
1 Philippine Peso = 1 Philippine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.04157 Pakistani Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0698 Polish Zloty
1 Philippine Peso = 109.32012 Paraguayan Guarani
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07303 Qatar Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07595 Romanian New Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 1.11692 Russian Rouble
1 Philippine Peso = 16.13209 Rwanda Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07284 Saudi Arabian Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15112 Solomon Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25618 Seychelles Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12937 Sudanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15921 Swedish Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02646 Singapore Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01475 St Helena Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.43135 Slovak Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 148.01865 Sierra Leone Leone
1 Philippine Peso = 10.85859 Somali Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 405.06606 Sao Tome Dobra
1 Philippine Peso = 0.16997 El Salvador Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 10.0035 Syrian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26663 Swaziland Lilageni
1 Philippine Peso = 0.64433 Thai Baht
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04839 Tunisian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04297 Tongan paʻanga
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07213 Turkish Lira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12972 Trinidad Tobago Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.58747 Taiwan Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 43.47319 Tanzanian Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.51593 Ukraine Hryvnia
1 Philippine Peso = 70.94017 Ugandan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01943 United States Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.57556 Uruguayan New Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 156.17716 Uzbekistan Sum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.19376 Venezuelan Bolivar
1 Philippine Peso = 441.37529 Vietnam Dong
1 Philippine Peso = 2.06876 Vanuatu Vatu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04978 Samoa Tala
1 Philippine Peso = 10.83178 CFA Franc (BEAC)
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05245 East Caribbean Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 10.68376 CFA Franc (BCEAO)
1 Philippine Peso = 1.97222 Pacific Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 4.85431 Yemen Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26674 South African Rand
1 Philippine Peso = 100.80614 Zambian Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 7.02991 Zimbabwe dollar

OIL MARKET IN 2018: Feast or famine?

By John Kemp

LONDON- “Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: and there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten.”

In the Bible, Joseph was interpreting Pharaoh’s dream of seven fat and seven thin cows, but he might have been talking about the oil market (“Genesis”, chapter 41, verses 29-30).

Just as Pharaoh’s kingdom experienced a cycle of feast and famine, depending on the Nile inundation, the oil market swings between periods of undersupply and oversupply.

“The problem of oil is that there is always too much or too little,” as Myron Watkins, professor of economics at New York University, wrote 80 years ago (“Oil: stabilization or conservation?” Watkins, 1937).

Ancient Egypt’s food supply was alternately plentiful or scarce, but only rarely “just enough”, which is why the state had granaries to store excess from the good harvests to cover the poor ones.

The oil market, too, carries stocks from periods of oversupply to periods of undersupply, and cycles regularly from contango to backwardation as it does so.

The natural state of the oil market is not just enough, any more than the natural state of Pharaoh’s food supply was just enough.

OPEC and other commentators, including myself, characterize the process of restricting oil production and reducing excess stocks as one of market “rebalancing”.

But while rebalancing is useful shorthand for a complicated set of adjustments to production, consumption and stocks, it does not imply the process ends with a “balanced” oil market.

The oil market is rarely balanced, and never for very long.

In the past, periods of oversupply and contango were swiftly followed by a return to undersupply and backwardation.

Something similar appears to be underway at present, with Brent and other international crude grades moving into backwardation over the last three months, after trading in contango since the middle of 2014.

Most analysts have expressed concern about the re-emergence of oversupply, a renewed rise in crude stocks, and how OPEC and its allies will exit from their current production deal in 2018.

But it is at least possible the market is moving towards a period of undersupply, when demand will be growing strongly, supply will be lagging, and stocks will feel uncomfortably tight.

Oil prices rarely adjust smoothly to changes in production or consumption (“Essentials of petroleum: a key to oil economics”, Frankel, 1946).

The relationships between production, consumption, stocks and prices are characterized by circular causal or feedback processes (“Cybernetics, or command and control in the animal and the human”, Wiener, 1948).

Some of these processes are stabilizing and tend to dampen the original disturbance (“negative feedback”), but others are destabilizing and tend to amplify the initial shock (“positive feedback”).

Positive feedback processes can cause a lot of instability in the short and medium term. During the oil market downturn between 2014 and 2016, positive feedback made the slump much worse and delayed rebalancing.

On the supply side, for example, the slump led to a fall in the price of labor, raw materials and service contracts, which damped producers’ response to lower prices.

On the demand side, recessions in oil-producing countries as well as the slump in drilling and the slowdown in global freight, all reduced oil consumption, especially of diesel, exacerbating the oversupply.

But positive feedback cuts both ways. Just as it made the slump deeper and longer, it is likely to accelerate and amplify the upturn.

Oil market rebalancing is likely to see a rise in costs as well as faster growth in consumption from oil-producing countries and an acceleration in freight.

In the oil market, like Pharaoh’s Egypt, everything tends to go right (or wrong) at the same time, causing violent swings in the commodity cycle.

The ingredients for a cyclical upturn in the oil market in 2018 and 2019 are all present.

The major global economies are experiencing the strongest synchronized expansion for a decade and world trade volumes are growing at the fastest rate since 2011.

The combination of a broad global expansion and relatively low oil prices has produced a surge in oil demand, with consumption growing faster than the long-term average over the last three years.

Global oil consumption is predicted to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2017 after growing by 1.3 million bpd in 2016 and 1.9 million bpd in 2015, according to the International Energy Agency.

Oil consumption is forecast to increase by another 1.4 million bpd in 2018, the IEA says.

Global crude and product stocks are now drawing down rapidly owing to a combination of strong demand and supply restraint by Saudi Arabia. 

Stocks are still above the five-year average, but converging towards it, and the five-year average is likely to prove too low given the prodigious growth in consumption since 2012.  

The critical question is how quickly producers will respond to strengthening demand and tightening oil inventories. – Reuters
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