April 24, 2018, 8:40 pm
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.07044 UAE Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 2.01285 Albanian Lek
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03414 Neth Antilles Guilder
1 Philippine Peso = 0.3869 Argentine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02498 Australian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03414 Aruba Florin
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03836 Barbados Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.59992 Bangladesh Taka
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03047 Bulgarian Lev
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00723 Bahraini Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 33.58228 Burundi Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01918 Bermuda Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.025 Brunei Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13157 Bolivian Boliviano
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06531 Brazilian Real
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01918 Bahamian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.26103 Bhutan Ngultrum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.18432 Botswana Pula
1 Philippine Peso = 383.96625 Belarus Ruble
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03832 Belize Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02447 Canadian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01871 Swiss Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 11.4346 Chilean Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12071 Chinese Yuan
1 Philippine Peso = 52.91139 Colombian Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 10.76908 Costa Rica Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01918 Cuban Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 1.72344 Cape Verde Escudo
1 Philippine Peso = 0.3961 Czech Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 3.39145 Djibouti Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.1164 Danish Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 0.94764 Dominican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.1869 Algerian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.24445 Estonian Kroon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.33832 Egyptian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.52167 Ethiopian Birr
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01562 Euro
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03879 Fiji Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01369 Falkland Islands Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01368 British Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08493 Ghanaian Cedi
1 Philippine Peso = 0.89893 Gambian Dalasi
1 Philippine Peso = 172.6122 Guinea Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.1407 Guatemala Quetzal
1 Philippine Peso = 3.94879 Guyana Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15041 Hong Kong Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.4519 Honduras Lempira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.11558 Croatian Kuna
1 Philippine Peso = 1.23341 Haiti Gourde
1 Philippine Peso = 4.85501 Hungarian Forint
1 Philippine Peso = 266.4557 Indonesian Rupiah
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06754 Israeli Shekel
1 Philippine Peso = 1.26972 Indian Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 22.70809 Iraqi Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 805.52361 Iran Rial
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1 Philippine Peso = 2.37438 Jamaican Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01359 Jordanian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 2.06782 Japanese Yen
1 Philippine Peso = 1.91408 Kenyan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 1.31497 Kyrgyzstan Som
1 Philippine Peso = 76.83161 Cambodia Riel
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1 Philippine Peso = 17.26122 North Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 20.47315 Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00575 Kuwaiti Dinar
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1 Philippine Peso = 158.78405 Lao Kip
1 Philippine Peso = 28.8646 Lebanese Pound
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1 Philippine Peso = 2.50441 Liberian Dollar
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.0119 Latvian Lat
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02539 Libyan Dinar
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.31433 Moldovan Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.95589 Macedonian Denar
1 Philippine Peso = 25.29728 Myanmar Kyat
1 Philippine Peso = 45.79977 Mongolian Tugrik
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15492 Macau Pataca
1 Philippine Peso = 6.75105 Mauritania Ougulya
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.35542 Mexican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07476 Malaysian Ringgit
1 Philippine Peso = 0.23032 Namibian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.88531 Nigerian Naira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.59455 Nicaragua Cordoba
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15025 Norwegian Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 2.02693 Nepalese Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02661 New Zealand Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00738 Omani Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01918 Panama Balboa
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06167 Peruvian Nuevo Sol
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06232 Papua New Guinea Kina
1 Philippine Peso = 1 Philippine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.21711 Pakistani Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06525 Polish Zloty
1 Philippine Peso = 105.81128 Paraguayan Guarani
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06981 Qatar Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07297 Romanian New Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 1.17426 Russian Rouble
1 Philippine Peso = 16.19889 Rwanda Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07192 Saudi Arabian Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14921 Solomon Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25758 Seychelles Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.34621 Sudanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.1621 Swedish Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02526 Singapore Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01369 St Helena Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.42589 Slovak Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 146.33679 Sierra Leone Leone
1 Philippine Peso = 10.79785 Somali Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 382.92676 Sao Tome Dobra
1 Philippine Peso = 0.16782 El Salvador Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 9.87687 Syrian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.2317 Swaziland Lilageni
1 Philippine Peso = 0.60153 Thai Baht
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04709 Tunisian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04287 Tongan paʻanga
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07793 Turkish Lira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12937 Trinidad Tobago Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.56552 Taiwan Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 43.65171 Tanzanian Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.50153 Ukraine Hryvnia
1 Philippine Peso = 70.73264 Ugandan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01918 United States Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.54066 Uruguayan New Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 154.48792 Uzbekistan Sum
1 Philippine Peso = 1138.30075 Venezuelan Bolivar
1 Philippine Peso = 436.67051 Vietnam Dong
1 Philippine Peso = 2.02071 Vanuatu Vatu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04846 Samoa Tala
1 Philippine Peso = 10.24242 CFA Franc (BEAC)
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05178 East Caribbean Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 10.24242 CFA Franc (BCEAO)
1 Philippine Peso = 1.85386 Pacific Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 4.79287 Yemen Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.23169 South African Rand
1 Philippine Peso = 99.53011 Zambian Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 6.94093 Zimbabwe dollar

OIL MARKET IN 2018: Feast or famine?

By John Kemp

LONDON- “Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: and there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten.”

In the Bible, Joseph was interpreting Pharaoh’s dream of seven fat and seven thin cows, but he might have been talking about the oil market (“Genesis”, chapter 41, verses 29-30).

Just as Pharaoh’s kingdom experienced a cycle of feast and famine, depending on the Nile inundation, the oil market swings between periods of undersupply and oversupply.

“The problem of oil is that there is always too much or too little,” as Myron Watkins, professor of economics at New York University, wrote 80 years ago (“Oil: stabilization or conservation?” Watkins, 1937).

Ancient Egypt’s food supply was alternately plentiful or scarce, but only rarely “just enough”, which is why the state had granaries to store excess from the good harvests to cover the poor ones.

The oil market, too, carries stocks from periods of oversupply to periods of undersupply, and cycles regularly from contango to backwardation as it does so.

The natural state of the oil market is not just enough, any more than the natural state of Pharaoh’s food supply was just enough.

OPEC and other commentators, including myself, characterize the process of restricting oil production and reducing excess stocks as one of market “rebalancing”.

But while rebalancing is useful shorthand for a complicated set of adjustments to production, consumption and stocks, it does not imply the process ends with a “balanced” oil market.

The oil market is rarely balanced, and never for very long.

In the past, periods of oversupply and contango were swiftly followed by a return to undersupply and backwardation.

Something similar appears to be underway at present, with Brent and other international crude grades moving into backwardation over the last three months, after trading in contango since the middle of 2014.

Most analysts have expressed concern about the re-emergence of oversupply, a renewed rise in crude stocks, and how OPEC and its allies will exit from their current production deal in 2018.

But it is at least possible the market is moving towards a period of undersupply, when demand will be growing strongly, supply will be lagging, and stocks will feel uncomfortably tight.

Oil prices rarely adjust smoothly to changes in production or consumption (“Essentials of petroleum: a key to oil economics”, Frankel, 1946).

The relationships between production, consumption, stocks and prices are characterized by circular causal or feedback processes (“Cybernetics, or command and control in the animal and the human”, Wiener, 1948).

Some of these processes are stabilizing and tend to dampen the original disturbance (“negative feedback”), but others are destabilizing and tend to amplify the initial shock (“positive feedback”).

Positive feedback processes can cause a lot of instability in the short and medium term. During the oil market downturn between 2014 and 2016, positive feedback made the slump much worse and delayed rebalancing.

On the supply side, for example, the slump led to a fall in the price of labor, raw materials and service contracts, which damped producers’ response to lower prices.

On the demand side, recessions in oil-producing countries as well as the slump in drilling and the slowdown in global freight, all reduced oil consumption, especially of diesel, exacerbating the oversupply.

But positive feedback cuts both ways. Just as it made the slump deeper and longer, it is likely to accelerate and amplify the upturn.

Oil market rebalancing is likely to see a rise in costs as well as faster growth in consumption from oil-producing countries and an acceleration in freight.

In the oil market, like Pharaoh’s Egypt, everything tends to go right (or wrong) at the same time, causing violent swings in the commodity cycle.

The ingredients for a cyclical upturn in the oil market in 2018 and 2019 are all present.

The major global economies are experiencing the strongest synchronized expansion for a decade and world trade volumes are growing at the fastest rate since 2011.

The combination of a broad global expansion and relatively low oil prices has produced a surge in oil demand, with consumption growing faster than the long-term average over the last three years.

Global oil consumption is predicted to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2017 after growing by 1.3 million bpd in 2016 and 1.9 million bpd in 2015, according to the International Energy Agency.

Oil consumption is forecast to increase by another 1.4 million bpd in 2018, the IEA says.

Global crude and product stocks are now drawing down rapidly owing to a combination of strong demand and supply restraint by Saudi Arabia. 

Stocks are still above the five-year average, but converging towards it, and the five-year average is likely to prove too low given the prodigious growth in consumption since 2012.  

The critical question is how quickly producers will respond to strengthening demand and tightening oil inventories. – Reuters
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